Friday, February 11, 2011

What are your chances?

Well based on my experiences I decided to statistically work out the probabilities of not getting a young gun rookie in either a blaster box or a hobby box. Based on my Upper Deck letter, they basically state the odds are for the ENTIRE production, so in theory you could have a hobby box loaded with YG's or a hobby box devoid of the coveted rookie cards. Using my math skills (I teach the stuff after all) I worked out the probabilities of both.

Starting with Hobby Boxes
Each box has 24 packs (both hobby and retail) and both seed YG's at a rate of 1:4. Based on those odds you could in theory have 0 YG's and 24 YG's if they put at most one in a pack. Here are the odds:

#Young Guns Odds
0 0.10%
1 0.80%
2 3.08%
3 7.52%
4 13.16%
5 17.55%
6 18.53%
7 15.88%
8 11.25%
9 6.67%
10 3.33%
11 1.41%
12 0.51%
13 0.16%
14 0.04%
15 0.01%
>16 Very small chances.....Some a little as winning the lottery

Blaster Boxes 12 packs with 1:6 chances
# Young Guns Odds
0 11.22%
1 26.92%
2 29.61%
3 19.74%
4 8.88%
5 2.84%
6 0.66%
7 0.11%
8 0.01%
9 0.001%
10 0.000076%
11 0.0000028%
12 0.000000046%

So it appears the odds of having a blaster box like mine aren't too outrageous which is a shame for anyone who pays $25 for one and ends up with base cards. With that being said, of course there are various different types of blaster boxes some seed 1:4 and give 8 packs, and I think they do a little QC to help avoid the 0's and 24's especially with Hobby boxes. Has anyone beat the odds before and had a huge number of hits? I am curious, let me know! If there are any other odds you think would be fun to work out feel free to make a request!


  1. with UD I've always got what I was supposed to, box or blaster. At least hockey wise. I opened a 2008 UD Football box once and got 12 hits out of 24 packs. That was fun.

  2. I'm with Capt. With the exception of some football and baseball a while back, hockey has been bedy, bedy good to me.