09-10 Upper Deck Series 1 Retail Box Break

Last summer I picked up a couple boxes of retail hockey. Two 09-10 and one 14-15. The 14-15 was epic-ally awful. So bad I didn't want to spend any time scanning the cards to share them let alone rehash the experience. The one 09-10 was equally bad. Thankfully there was gone good box in the lot and I will share some of those with you wonderful folks today. If it had been the only box, then I would have called it a success. Sadly it needs to carry the weight of its crappy brethren so that in itself also diminishes the success here.

Without further ado, the top 4 Guns out of 6 I got and one game used card.

09-10 Upper Deck Dmitry Kulikov Young Gun

First up is Dmitry Kulikov. Kulikov is a pretty steady defenseman who currently is apart of a pretty solid blue line group in Winnipeg. Having grown up in Lipetsk, I am sure living in Winnipeg isn't as painful as some seem to find it given they get cold weather on occasion in that part of Russia.  

09-10 Upper Deck Artem Anisimov Young Gun

Artem hit a milestone this week scoring his 300th career point. It took him 600 games which is pretty decent, at that pace he'd be good for 41 points in an 82 game season. Playing 82 games in a season has been a challenge for Artem given he hasn't reached that total in the past 7 seasons. Still, he's a very dynamic player and can often surprise defenders with a great move or a superb pass.

09-10 Upper Deck James van Riemsdyk

Oh boy, back in 2009 this was a pretty coveted card. Second overall pick, loads of talent and potential and the sky was the limit. James in now in his 9th season, he's managed some great numbers including a career high in goals of 30 and he's cracked 60 points twice. This year he's on pace for 32 goals and 49 points. However, if we were to look at the 2007 draft class as a whole, he'd likely still be a first rounder but guys selected behind him (Voracek, Couture, Shattenkirk, Pacioretty, Subban, Simmonds, and Benn) may all get some consideration before JVR. With that being said, given the 50 Young Gun cards I could have hit, this is one of the better ones. 

09-10 Upper Deck Jamie Benn Young Gun 

The biggest hit of the box without a doubt is this one. Jamie was a 5th round steal for the Dallas Stars and as of today, ranks second in points from those selected in 2007 with 569 just behind Patrick Kane (805). Jamie has scored 20 goals or more in every season he's played except the lockout year and this season is on pace for 30 goals and 75 points. He's definitely an elite talent and this was one YG I was missing from my collection so in all a very nice hit.


The Game Used Card!

All retail boxes back then came with a single game used card and I think I did pretty well with Anze Kopitar!

So there you have it, been a while since I shared a box break but given how bad my luck has been in this department, you can probably understand how I didn't want to use up too much of my limited blogging time on some pretty spectacularly awful boxes. This was definitely a success but far from my best too.

How about yourselves? Any box luck lately?

A Pair of Rookie Surprises

A while back I erroneously thought that Kasperi Kapanen would have a break out season. Maybe I was caught up in his playoff performance or maybe I felt the Leafs would be much more of a juggernaut than they have been. Either way, his 10 goals in 22 games is impressive except that's all been in the AHL. Nico Hischier has been everything I hoped he could have been and maybe a bit more but that's not a surprise. Jesper Bratt has been an excellent surprise and I can't wait for Series 2 to drop so I can chase him there. Brock Boeser has had an excellent season but much like Keller this too was expected but you could argue he certainly has exceeded expectations. 

Two guys that definitely might not have garnered much Calder consideration before the season have had great first halves and they are Danton Heinen and Kyle Connor. This past weekend I returned my recycling and got a whopping $9.75 for my troubles and was able to cash in at the LCS and land these two babies with those funds!

16-17 Upper Deck Danton Heinen Young Gun

 Let's start with Danton. Danton was one of those junior players who didn't play at the highest level and was a star for his team. Then went off to College in the States to hone his game and payed his dues with a season in the AHL. Now at the age of 22 he's matured and fine tuned his game to have NHL success. After 36 games he has 10 goals and 30 points. That's pretty impressive for a player picked in the 4th round in the 2014 draft. Both him and Arvidsson were picked in the same round that year. If he is able to keep this pace going he will finish with 22 goals and 65 points in 78 games which would certainly please any Bruins fan I am sure.

16-17 Upper Deck Kyle Connor Young Gun

Kyle arrived at the NHL via the USHL and one year of College. Much like Heinen his is an older rookie but not Makarov old (21 years to be exact) just more experienced than your average rookie. Kyle did have the benefit of a pretty long stint last year which saw him play 20 games and put up 2 goals and 5 points in that time. This season has been a success thus far with him putting up 15 goals and 28 points in 38 games. This would have him on pace to net 30 as a rookie which much like Heinen I believe exceed the expectations of many given the depth the Jets already have at the forward position.

Time will tell if these players are true stars or just Ken Hodge Jr. flashes in the pan. Given the fact that Connor was a first round pick I could see him being a long term star who is a consistent contributor on the power play and second line for the Jets which only makes them that much more lethal with Laine, Scheifele, Little, Wheeler and others in the line up already. Heinen also has a great deal of potential and perhaps he will offer a yang to Marchand's ying for the next number of seasons and when you mix in Patrice and Pasta the Bruins will climb back to the top where they once occupied. Either way, it seems there has been a massive influx of young talent over the past three seasons and I can't remember a time in the last 20 years where hockey was this exciting to watch!

Hidden Behind a Wealth of Talent - Kasperi Kapanen

With the exception of a few random successes in the past 20 or so I would best describe the Toronto Maple Leafs as nothing short of a mess. As a devout hockey fan who also used to be a part owner of the Maple Leafs (MLSE to be specific), I know I was often left scratching my head at the way the franchise was being run. However, a few years ago, they gutted the team from top to the bottom and I know Lou isn't getting as much credit as Shanahan (and the Shanaplan) but I honestly believe Lou has helped change the culture and through smart trades of Kessel and a little draft luck the Leafs are now loaded with talent.

IF you dig far enough into the Kessel trade you will see young Kapanen's name was involved as well as a draft pick which turned out to be Sam Steel. However, the pick ended up belonging to the Ducks as the Leafs traded the pick to land Frederik Andersen first and then the Ducks drafted Steel after. While this will never make up for what Kessel cost the Leafs in the first place, it's still a decent return which brings me back to Kapanen.

16-17 Upper Deck Series 2 Kasperi Kapanen Young Gun

I really really hope I am wrong about this but fact of the matter is I am always a realist first and dreamer second. The Calder Trophy for top rookie could be an interesting race this year. I don't believe it will come down to an amazing battle like last year where Murray, Laine, Marner, Nylander, Werenski or Matthews could conceivably have won it had they been paired against a different crop of rookies (ie like 2013 etc) but I do think that Nico Hischier, Nolan Patrick and Kasperi Kapanen will be battling some of the other rookies for the Calder. With that being said, I don't know if anyone will be Kapanen for the Calder. While he may not be as talented as the other top picks, he does have a few years of pro experience under his belt which will help and the depth the Leafs have now will ensure he gets some pretty good match ups against the other teams which he could exploit. I am going to go out on a limb and say he's my early prediction for the Calder though I am hopeful that Nico will come out on top in the end!

What are your thoughts? Any extremely early Calder predictions (Strome? Yost? Keller? Someone else?) Thanks for stopping by, my next post will be when I return and hopefully have some stuff about the Hockey Hall of Fame!

08-09 Upper Deck Ben Bishop Young Gun

Goaltenders are an interesting breed and that is probably true regardless of sport. To be willing to have a collection of athletes pound/shoot/fire objects at you as hard as they can in the hopes you will miss often bring out the most interesting of volunteers who are suckers for punishment. Not only are goaltenders subjected to this, they also have to wear wins and losses like badges of honour or scarlet letters. I believe it is because of these job hazards you get lots of players who just don't cut it and disappear and so very few players in this position go on to have lengthy careers.

However, I also believe to some degree what doesn't kill you can only make you stronger and that is why many goaltenders tend to have their best years during the second half of their career or if you are looking at numbers, in their late 20's and early 30's. This brings me to Mr. Ben Bishop.

Ben is a player who had a tough season last year and I believe is poised to have an amazing year this coming season for a number of reasons. First off, he is headed to a club that grossly under-performed last year and has the fire power to be a Cup contender. Secondly, Ben is now 30 years young in age and I believe he has a few 40 win seasons left in the tank and the next couple years could potentially be his finest which is saying lots because he already won 40 games once and finished as a Vezina trophy finalist twice.


08-09 Upper Deck Ben Bishop Young Gun

As far as Young Guns go, this one is pretty lame. The photo is very plain and almost depressing. Ben hasn't had time to paint his mask yet and he almost looks like he finished up the second half of warm ups and is on his way to the bench. Couple that with the fact that this is my least favourite Young Gun design in the past 15 years you get a pretty average card. However, it's in Ben I trust and this time it's the person that makes this card cool and not the design or photo.

What are your thoughts? Are the Stars contenders again thanks to Ben Bishop? Or will he be revealed as a good goalie because of a good system in Tampa and will be exposed as a fraud in Dallas? I know he is a bit unlucky with the timeliness of his past injuries but hopefully those are all behind him and he will have a great 4 years in Texas. Thanks for stopping by!

A new minor PC - Blake Speers

How many PCs can a fella have? Probably as many as they want or can afford to chase/trade for, but in my case I usually stop ones and start others and while Brett Connolly is big in my collection and I will always follow along, I've officially stopped chasing his stuff and will just enjoy what I have accumulated. As a result I've started a couple small PCs to replace BC with and Blake Speers is one of them.

I really enjoyed his efforts at the 2017 WJHC and he looked really good last fall with the Devils and actually made the opening night line up. I suspect he will make it again this year but perhaps will manage to stick it out this time for the whole season. He's a very tenacious player who does very well at both ends of the ice and has lots of speed which seems to be the direction the Devils are going with their rebuild which makes him a perfect second/third line player.

16-17 Upper Deck Blake Speers Young Gun

 What every PC needs if the card exists is a Young Gun version. I don't have the acetate version yet but they are out there. I'd be willing to make a trade for one if anyone has one to part with.

15-16 Leaf Heroes and Prospects Blake Speers Prospect Auto /80

 Also who could start a PC without an autograph of the player? This one is fun because it's him in a Greyhounds jersey and represents him prior to being in the NHL.

There you have it a couple to kick off a minor PC. I do have a couple more I will share but those will come at a later date! Thanks for stopping by.

A pile from the 3 for 5 bin! A little bit of everything for everyone.

Right now the 3 for 5 bin in my LCS is pretty lean thanks to me picking through all the good stuff. Rather than drag this out over 9 posts and bore everyone to death I figured I'd just lump them together. Enjoy the fruits of my 15 dollars!

2003-04 Private Stock Reserve Pavel Bure Jersey /750

Hall of Famer! Yes pleasure, I was willing to overlook the blue shirt.

2013-14 Upper Deck Canvas Valeri Nichushkin Young Gun

Love this guy's potential and love the photo. Seeing a shooting Star isn't too uncommon during a Dallas game but a flying Star is pretty awesome on cardboard.

2005-06 Trilogy Rookie Premiere Corey Crawford Rookie /999

This without a doubt is the coolest card of the bunch. Underrated beyond belief this keeper is and no respect at my LCS as this mint condition rookie was just sitting in the cheap seats. The crud at the top of the card was on the top loader. I promise to move it to a better top loader and give Corey 100% respect.

2006-07 Black Diamond Gemography Brad Winchester

I have far too many of his cards in my collection. Where is he now you ask? Retired. So perhaps he is on a beach somewhere spending his hard earned money. Though, he could also be waking up in a shady no-tell motel after a night of partying and drowning his sorrows.



2006-07 Black Diamond Gemography Jim Slater

I also have too many of Jim's cards in my collection. Jim left the NHL this season to play for Geneve in the Swiss league where he is playing with Tom Pyatt and Matt D'Agostini. Currently he has 25 points in 26 games which is pretty solid. These are his best numbers since he left college in 2005.

2013-14 Upper Deck Young Guns Jacob Trouba RC

Unless I already have a card in doubles or triplicate I typically love getting Young Guns in the 3 for 5 bin. Jacob is still very early in his career and given d-men usually take a few seasons to hit their stride I am thinking he is going to be an NHL star before long.

2013-14 Upper Deck Young Guns Ryan Murray RC

Hated him at the WJHC in 2012 where he repeatedly turned the puck over. The Blue Jackets have been slow bringing him along and for good reason but I think eventually he could be a decent defenseman and totally worth the $1.67.

2013-14 Upper Deck Young Guns Rasmus Ristolainen

Think Victor Hedman just slightly shorter.

2013-14 Contenders NHL Ink Steve Oleksy Auto

A roller hockey stud and an ice hockey minor-leaguer. Interesting auto here but again, autos for less than 2 bucks are always fun to snap up!

There you go, 9 cards covering all sorts of different players and all welcomed into my ever growing collection. Thanks for stopping by, I have a few fun posts coming up so stay tuned!

11-12 Upper Deck Ryan Nugent Hopkins Young Gun

My BFAM Tom has been a fantastic friend completing a number of trades with me. One day he told me about the tin of 11-12 Upper Deck Series 1 he was given by a LCS and I wished him luck and even said I hope he pulls a RNH rookie. Sure enough, he did! What else did he pull? Brett Connolly. So being the nice guy I am I told him he did very well on his box and told him how awesome the cards actually were. I then proceeded to offer up an extra Brodeur auto I had and he was game for the deal!

Gotta love when both sides are happy on a trade and as much as I like Brodeur, I definitely wanted this card which has eluded me so far and felt I could spare an auto for the biggest Brodeur fan I know.


11-12 Upper Deck Ryan Nugent Hopkins Young Gun

I would have had that same look on my face had I pulled this card! The Oilers are hopefully going to turn the corner finally on their rebuild and RNH is one of their players I would say are a cornerstone for their future and this past year he proved it by leading the team in goals with Jordan Eberle (24) and finishing second in team scoring with 56 points.

Don't Be Saad, Marcus is here but all good things must end.

The series of Blackhawk posts are about to end with their future. What Chicago has accomplished the last 9 years or has been remarkable. They were a club in the NHL basement, they won a Cup, got in trouble with the cap, blew up their team, and then rebuilt themselves into a power house once again. Not only do they look pretty good now, but with a collection of solid prospects they Hawks look good going forward. Here are two such prospects:  

11-12 Upper Deck Brandon Saad Rookie

 Brandon was off to a slow start this season but recently has picked it up scoring 12 points in the past 11 games and is seeing a little more ice time as a result.

11-12 Upper Deck Marcus Kruger Rookie

 Unlike the wing position, the centre position is a little more jam-packed so Marcus isn't getting the same ice time as Brandon mostly because they are pretty deep at the centre position with Toews, Bolland and Shaw all getting their fair share of ice. Still, he is making pretty good use of his time and in another season or two should be a pretty solid second-line centre.

11-12 Titanium New Wave Autos Brandon Saad (Exchange)

Here is an auto of Brandon Saad to go with my three Kruger autos. This is a rookie year signature of Brandon which isn't the same as an auto rookie, but sometimes that is just good enough!

So there you have it, a few Hawks related posts in honour of my favourite original 6 team. I will be back to posting about everything else in my collection with little rhyme or reason to the order! Thanks for checking in.

Toonie Treasures

My LCS has just continued to evolve over the past year or so thanks to Mike. He has taken the approach of moving lots of product fast rather than make more of each card slowly. It certainly is a business model that I think works for everyone, but then again my wife is the one with the business degree. All of these cards were in the 2 dollar bin which offers a good balance of value and coolness.

11/12 UD Young Guns Checklist

I am going to say that if this was one of my Young Gun hits in a box I would be happy, but not excited. At two bucks, I am excited. Three solid rookies including my boy Larsson. The other two were ROY finalists including the winner Landeskog.


08/09 UD Young Guns Checklist

I think any card with Stamkos on it from his rookie year is a home run. Both Doughty and Pietrangelo has become soild D-Men not unlike the early 90's when it was Lidstrom and Niedermayer.

05-06 UD ICE Zach Parise Rookie /999

 I bought one of these a while back in a lot deal with a Duncan Keith Ice rookie. I thought it was a pretty good deal to land both for under 10 bucks, but this takes the cake!

07-08 BAP Auto Tobias Enstrom

Here is a rookie year auto of Tobias Enstrom. If this kid was in Toronto he would be getting as much praise as Jake Gardiner, however he is stuck in the Winnipeg Thrasher organization and back to back 50 point seasons mean your auto is in the two dollar bin. He did only have 33 points last year, but he was hurt for 20 games.

06-07 Bee Hive Booth /100 and Zajac

A Booth rookie /100 had to come home with me and the Zajac was a rookie I didn't own already so these two are likely my least biggest savings but still two good cards that found a loving home!


I will keep sifting the boxes and sharing what other good stuff I can find. Parise is up for trade if anyone is interested.

Taking care of some business - Adam Henrique

Well, life as a Devils fan has been much easier than it was last year. Part of the reason has been the play of OUR Rookie of the Year Adam Henrique. As of last night, he is now leading the league in rookie scoring which kinda sucks because buying his cards has been a little pricier than the beginning of the year when he wasn't even listed in the Beckett. However, as the market gets more and more saturated with rookies, I should be able to find a few deals!

Anyway, here are a few pickups of Henrique cards I have landed since training camp!




11/12 Young Guns
Needed this card. Young guns are always awesome to have and I landed a good deal for this one as part of a lot of 3 Young guns.


11/12 OPC Retro

I really liked the look of these cards the moment I saw them and to land it for 2 bucks made it worth every penny to me.

09/10 ITG

This was a FUN card to get. I got this back in September as part of a trade with fellow blogger JonWayne.

In all, three great cards to add to my collection and I personally love the auto the most! Thanks again JonWayne, and who knows, Henrique very well could end up finishing atop the rookie scoring. IF he is able to keep it up, you never know, he could do what Brodeur and Gomez did before him!

Some players get no love - Loui Eriksson

About a month ago I completed another great trade with Sal from puckjunk.com. I had a few cards he needed for sets and he had a few cards that were on my wish list so we made a trade. One card that came over to me in the trade was a Loui Eriksson Young Gun. What surprised me about the card was how little it listed for in the Beckett. Isn't he an All-Star? This got me to thinking....

Isn't it strange how some players get NO hobby love? Loui Eriksson is a prime example of a good player who gets no love. If you look at the Beckett value of an 06-07 Eriksson Young Gun you will find that it is barely even listed ($8 High value and an unbelievable low value of 3.00). Of course BV isn’t everything, but looking on Ebay at Young Gun prices you will find they range from 6-8 bucks including shipping. A steal in my opinion for a player who was top 20 in the NHL in points this past season, an All-Star who was picked before Kessel (BV$25 in the same set) and has averaged 30+ goals a season for the last 3 years. One of the biggest insults to Loui Eriksson is his Young Gun card value is equal to far inferior players like Marc-Antoine Pouliot (fewer career points than Eriksson’s last season total), Fredrik Noreena (no longer in NHL), or even Michel Ouellet (of the Hamburg Freezers).

Jordan Staal on the other hand like Eriksson is also a good player. Staal has a few brothers than can play the game too and it seems that family celebrity is causing Staal to get some of the love that belongs to Eriksson in my opinion. Plus playing for the Penguins probably isn’t hurting his status either. Staal’s 06-07 Young Gun books for 20-50 dollars. That is over 6 times higher than Loui Eriksson. Is Staal that much better?

Let us compare:

GP:

Staal 369 games

Eriksson 371 games

Goals:

Staal 95 goals

Eriksson 112 goals

Assists:

Staal 103 assists

Eriksson 145 assists

Points:

Staal 198 points

Eriksson 257 points

+/-:

Staal +42

Eriksson +22

Offensively I wouldn’t say that comparison is close; there is nearly a 60 point difference between these two All-Stars. Granted, Staal is the better two-way player earning a Selke nomination in 2010. However, Eriksson is no defensive slouch either, he finished second on his team in +/- this year at +10. Not bad on a poor Stars team where more than half the team finished as negatives.

I guess that goes to show that hobby love is more than just skill. Often where the player plays and WHO the player plays with has a huge impact on their card value. If Loui was a Maple Leaf I can imagine his 8 dollar YG card would be more like 30. Same thing, I think if Jordan Staal was in Florida he would be worth about 8 bucks instead of 50.

Needless to say, fans like me who like underrated players able to scoop up their cards for next to nothing which is great, but, it would be nice to see these cards earn a little more financial respect! Are there any players out there who you think are seriously undervalued in the hobby world?

Young Guns vs Victory Black

As a hockey card collector I find it sometimes difficult to be able to go and build every set there is. In fact, I find it difficult to justify building sets that include ALL SP's. So when I buy boxes of products like UD, I tend to just focus on building the base set and what ever Young Guns I get are bonuses. I hope each season to land the big fish and it happens sometimes (Price, Kane and Stamkos) and other times I don't (Tavares and Hall) and I can either give up, or go and buy that card as a single if I want it. But really in the end, I don't feel a desire to try and get all 50 young guns for each series which is good in some respects because then I can trade my YG's for other YG's I do want or at the very least for other cards I would prefer.

So with the season almost in the books and my card buying is pretty much planned for the next couple of months, I am faced with the task of trying to gather up the remaining Devils rookies I didn't pull from packs. My goal is usually to have one copy of each Devils Rookie. I don't need all the Devils rookies from all the sets, but I try and get one or two versions of each player.

On Ebay, I found many different auctions for a Stephen Gionta rookie card. One in particular was for a Victory Black and the other for a Young Gun version. So my question is, not being interested in anything more than the single card, which do you choose? Keep in mind, in the case of Mr. Gionta, the Victory Black and Young Gun ended up being the same price.

Do you go for the better looking card?

Do you go for the better product?

Do you go for the rarer of the two?

I decided to go with the Victory Black. I put a bid in for 3 bucks including shipping and sure enough it was a winner.

Here is what the Young Gun Version.

Here is the Victory Black card I won.

-the card is in amazing shape and I am very happy with it, what you see on the top is a little tape residue on the top loader.

I decided to go with the rarer of the two. The production numbers are significantly different. I estimate there are anywhere from 50-80 times as many Young Guns as there are Victory Blacks. I like the idea that the card is a little more scarce and being able to get it for the same price as a young gun made me feel like I got a good deal. But now your turn, which would you have chosen?

Even looking at a card like a John Tavares RC. The Young Gun cards go on eBay for prices between 40 and 70 bucks, while Victory Black versions can be had for about 80-100 bucks. So again, you aren't paying a huge premium for a much more scarce card.

What are your chances?

Well based on my experiences I decided to statistically work out the probabilities of not getting a young gun rookie in either a blaster box or a hobby box. Based on my Upper Deck letter, they basically state the odds are for the ENTIRE production, so in theory you could have a hobby box loaded with YG's or a hobby box devoid of the coveted rookie cards. Using my math skills (I teach the stuff after all) I worked out the probabilities of both.

Starting with Hobby Boxes

Each box has 24 packs (both hobby and retail) and both seed YG's at a rate of 1:4. Based on those odds you could in theory have 0 YG's and 24 YG's if they put at most one in a pack. Here are the odds:

#Young Guns Odds

0 0.10%

1 0.80%

2 3.08%

3 7.52%

4 13.16%

5 17.55%

6 18.53%

7 15.88%

8 11.25%

9 6.67%

10 3.33%

11 1.41%

12 0.51%

13 0.16%

14 0.04%

15 0.01%

>16 Very small chances.....Some a little as winning the lottery

Blaster Boxes 12 packs with 1:6 chances

# Young Guns Odds

0 11.22%

1 26.92%

2 29.61%

3 19.74%

4 8.88%

5 2.84%

6 0.66%

7 0.11%

8 0.01%

9 0.001%

10 0.000076%

11 0.0000028%

12 0.000000046%

So it appears the odds of having a blaster box like mine aren't too outrageous which is a shame for anyone who pays $25 for one and ends up with base cards. With that being said, of course there are various different types of blaster boxes some seed 1:4 and give 8 packs, and I think they do a little QC to help avoid the 0's and 24's especially with Hobby boxes. Has anyone beat the odds before and had a huge number of hits? I am curious, let me know! If there are any other odds you think would be fun to work out feel free to make a request!