What are your chances?

Well based on my experiences I decided to statistically work out the probabilities of not getting a young gun rookie in either a blaster box or a hobby box. Based on my Upper Deck letter, they basically state the odds are for the ENTIRE production, so in theory you could have a hobby box loaded with YG's or a hobby box devoid of the coveted rookie cards. Using my math skills (I teach the stuff after all) I worked out the probabilities of both.

Starting with Hobby Boxes

Each box has 24 packs (both hobby and retail) and both seed YG's at a rate of 1:4. Based on those odds you could in theory have 0 YG's and 24 YG's if they put at most one in a pack. Here are the odds:

#Young Guns Odds

0 0.10%

1 0.80%

2 3.08%

3 7.52%

4 13.16%

5 17.55%

6 18.53%

7 15.88%

8 11.25%

9 6.67%

10 3.33%

11 1.41%

12 0.51%

13 0.16%

14 0.04%

15 0.01%

>16 Very small chances.....Some a little as winning the lottery

Blaster Boxes 12 packs with 1:6 chances

# Young Guns Odds

0 11.22%

1 26.92%

2 29.61%

3 19.74%

4 8.88%

5 2.84%

6 0.66%

7 0.11%

8 0.01%

9 0.001%

10 0.000076%

11 0.0000028%

12 0.000000046%

So it appears the odds of having a blaster box like mine aren't too outrageous which is a shame for anyone who pays $25 for one and ends up with base cards. With that being said, of course there are various different types of blaster boxes some seed 1:4 and give 8 packs, and I think they do a little QC to help avoid the 0's and 24's especially with Hobby boxes. Has anyone beat the odds before and had a huge number of hits? I am curious, let me know! If there are any other odds you think would be fun to work out feel free to make a request!